← Store Championships @ Retro Exchange
Water AlliesTier 2
at Store Championships @ Retro Exchange
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.6%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1338–1338
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1190
Q3 1349
1517
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
